Absolutely No Momentum

There's no difference between no momentum and "absolutely" no momentum. The term "absolutely" is a useless word, prime to be struck by my editing pen. But I mention it here for emphasis: The 2008 Democratic Primary campaign has shown absolutely no momentum for either candidate.

Obama voters have voted for Obama. Since Super Tuesday, this category includes African Americans, younger voters, and those who make more money and have completed college. Clinton voters have voted for Clinton. Since Super Tuesday, the Clinton voter is typically blue-collar and/or older. Clinton has also done well among women, unless they are African American, and her support in this category wanes among younger women and among women who've completed college (since that would overlap with a demographic favorable to Obama).

In contest after contest since early February, the make up of either candidate's support has not changed. Each primary is a census on a given state's make up against those demographics. We now know that the younger or college-educated Democratic audience in Indiana is almost the same size as the blue collar or older one.

I admire the fact that Democrats across the country have stuck to their hunches. They have not been swayed by talk of momentum (proof there hasn't been any). From a broader perspective, the way the media has covered this race is humorous. Under the no-momentum theory, a casual observer could have predicted a Clinton victory by ten points in Pennsylvania back in February. It's just the way the demographics in Pennsylvania fall, and the way the "Democratic census" in that state would work out. Yet the morning after, we heard pundit after pundit saying that Hillary had momentum. We heard it for a week.

Truth be told, the media are dieing to say that someone, anyone, has momentum. Because a horse race with no race is boring. After Pennsylvania, many reporters couldn't wait any longer, and proclaimed that Clinton had finally received the big "mo."

Except they were wrong. The results in North Carolina and Indiana are exactly as one would have predicted back on Super Tuesday, looking and the Democratic make-up in each state. At that time, you could have called North Carolina for Obama by a dozen and said Clinton would win Indiana by a couple.

But while the results showed no momentum, the media said the opposite: That Obama had momentum and the race was over. We heard Tim Russert say early Wednesday morning that we now know who the Democratic nominee will be.

While Obama might readily win the nomination, he has not picked up any momentum from Tuesday's victories. New polls today from West Virginia show Clinton extending her lead there. Using the theory of no momentum, let's make some predictions on how the remaining contests will unfold. To do this, I will look at the demographics of each state versus the results on Super Tuesday (yes-- results from early February). Here goes:

1) Clinton wins West Virginia by 24.
2) Clinton wins Kentucky by more than 20. Could even be 30.
3) Obama wins Oregon by 7.
4) Obama wins Montana by 9.
5) Clinton wins Puerto Rico by 12.
6) Obama wins South Dakota by 6.

Let's see if I am right.

It's important to call each primary what it is. They are not snap-shot polls of the electorate. They are reflections of the unique demographic mixes of each state. When Clinton wins West Virginia on Tuesday, it will not be because she has momentum and has won over voters, it will be because the group of voters that she appeals to will be much larger. We shouldn't read more into it than that.

The Road to Denver

I have never been to Denver. Well, I have been to the airport, but not to the city. This August is looking like a great time to go.

Yesterday, a large group of my Democratic neighbors in the Massachusetts 8th Congressional District elected my good friend Nikko Mendoza to be a delegate to the Democratic Convention, which is in Denver this year in late August.

It was a long but exciting day, and another lesson for me in democracy. A few general observations:

-- The Bunker Hill Community College has a grilled cheese sandwich vending machine. The caucus I attended last night was in a BHCC auditorium. In the main lobby, where I was greeting caucus-goers with other Nikko supporters, a hot food vending machine offered the cheesy treats along with french fries and pizza. Curiosity overtook me. I tried a grilled cheese. Not horrible, but I am not about to buy one of the machines for my apartment.

-- We Democrats know how to demonstrate the chaotic side of the process. I remember watching some of the Iowa caucuses on TV. The Republican caucuses seemed neat and orderly, with people sitting in chairs and casting votes by dropping a paper in ballot box slots. Pretty uneventful TV. The Democratic caucuses were kind of like a cross between an organizational PTA meeting and a baseball game. Organized chaos, perhaps. The caucus yesterday at the BHCC was organized chaos. Matt O'Mally, one caucus organizer and recognized party member, wasn't even listed on the voter registration lists. Despite this, I was disappointed that many attendees got upset. As Democrats, we should know by now that we excel at organized chaos (See: Texas prima-caucus [Prima-Caucus is a new word for me!]).

-- I really like the community side of politics. It was truly great to see local Charlestown neighbors coming out to support John "Jack" Kelly, who was running on the same slate as Nikko. (Jack grew up in Charlestown). The community feel of the event was overwhelming, and great to see. I have often said that Boston is a city of neighborhoods, and it was great to spend a day in an adjacent neighborhood to where I live.

After the caucus, I went to the Mission on Mission Hill, where I ran into some Obama supporters just exiting their 8th Congressional Caucus. Unlike the Hillary caucus, which ended on one ballot, the Obama caucus went on forever.

I am also very proud of Nikko. She really deserves to be a delegate, as I have written earlier, and it's great to see her recognized for her efforts.

P.S. For anyone who really is interested, Nikko won with 85-percent of the votes cast. As I screamed after the results were announced "LANDSLIDE."

P.P.S. It's great to see extensive coverage of the caucuses yesterday in today's issue of Boston's hometown newspaper, The Boston Globe, given that the events were the big political news in the city of the last month. (For those who can't read my tone, the Globe didn't cover them at all.)

Caucus Saturday: I am Supporting Nikko Mendoza

This Saturday I am attending a district Democratic caucus in Massachusetts. I am supporting my good friend Nikko Mendoza, who is running to be the female delegate for Hillary Clinton representing the 8th Massachusetts Congressional district.

A couple of things that are strange about this.

1) I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary. I voted for Barack Obama.

2) I don't live in the 8th Congressional district. I live in the 9th Congressional district. I can't even vote at the caucus I am attending Saturday.

These strange things should show you how strongly I support Nikko. To say she is a dedicated public servant in her role within Mayor Menino's office is an understatement. Nikko is on call 24-hours a day, 7-days a week for the people of Boston.

Furthermore, to say that Nikko is a dedicated supporter of Hillary Clinton is also an understatement. She helped organize ground efforts in Manchester, New Hampshire when Hillary was way behind in the polls there (She even inspired me to drive up there and help her).

She volunteered in Rhode Island on the second Super Tuesday, placing phone calls to Texas towns when the victory in Providence was secure.

Now for those of you who want a little bit of education about how the delegate selection process works in this state, here it is in simple terms. The Presidential primary on Super Tuesday determined the delegates awarded to Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. However, the delegates are awarded by Congressional district. In the 8th Congressional district, Senator Obama won seven delegates (and alternates) and Senator Clinton won two delegates.

Once the total count is determined, each congressional district holds caucuses to determine which individuals will fill the elected delegate positions. Each candidate holds a caucus. So in the 8th Congressional District, the Obama campaign and the Clinton campaign are holding separate caucuses.

At the Clinton caucus in the 8th district, the attendees will elect one female and one male delegate to the convention in Denver in August to fill the seats the primary voters gave the Clinton campaign in February.

Confused yet?

Simply put, in my case, I cannot think of a better delegate to represent me and my Democratic party than Nikko Mendoza. And I am looking forward to supporting her on Saturday even though I cannot vote for her. Anyone else who is a registered Democrat in the 8th District (meaning your Congressman is Mike Capuano), please join me in supporting her. The caucus is being held at Bunker Hill Community College in Charlestown. Also-- You should know that her full name on the ballot is Marie Nicole Mendoza.

8th Congressional District DNC Caucus for Hillary Clinton

Saturday, April 5 at 1PM (please arrive no later than 12:45PM - doors close promptly at 1)

Bunker Hill Community College
250 New Rutherford Avenue, Charlestown