Monday, February 04, 2008

Obama Has Caught Clinton

(Editor's note: I have endorsed Barack Obama in the presidential race. My reasons are in an earlier post on this blog.)

A new 7News/Suffolk poll has the Massachusetts democratic race a dead heat as we head into election eve. Obama leads by two points, within the margin of error.

Also, I am not sure if it was smart for Senator Clinton to make a remark related to the Pats loss yesterday.

Slate's "Today's Papers" is the first outlet I have seen that notes Obama has caught up to Clinton in national polls.

I should mention that the polls I trust the most are the Reuters Zogby polls. A great story from the 2000 campaign that is more myth than reality (I heard it from a friend so I am not sure if it's true, but it is interesting.) Rogby had been showing in its overnights up to the election that Gore was seeing a late surge. The morning of the election, they calculated their final numbers, and gave Gore a slight win in the popular vote. Seeing this was counter to all other polls, Zogby told his peeps to redo the numbers. They came out the same, and Zogby released them. They ended up being right on the money with the outcome of the election. This part is true, the Zogby poll did correctly predict the outcome of the popular vote.

That being said, some very encouraging signs for Barack Obama in the recent batch of overnight polls. He has pulled into the lead in California. He has pulled into the lead in Missouri. It looks like his victory in Georgia may be of South Carolina proportions. The latest New Jersey poll has the race a tie.

The crowds he is drawing are significant. Thousands yesterday in Delaware. Today, he's in New Jersey, Connecticut and here in Boston.

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