Why Mayor Menino Won Boston's Ward 5

A year ago, I noticed that City Councilor Michael Flaherty showed up at Sonia Chang-Diaz's victory party in Jamaica Plain. Chang-Diaz had just defeated sitting State Senator Dianne Wilkerson in the state primary, and Flaherty wanted to pass on his congratulations.

No doubt, however, Flaherty wanted to catch a feeling of the wave that Chang-Diaz had created to deliver the upset. Just a few months later Flaherty would announce he hoped to become Mayor, challenging a 16-year incumbent. What could he learn from Chang-Diaz's win (Wilkerson had also been in office for several terms) and perhaps more importantly, how could he win favor with the same group that backed the challenger?

City Councilor Sam Yoon was not at the victory party, however I am sure the Chang-Diaz phenomenon also partially motivated his decision this year to jump into the Mayoral race.

Chang-Diaz, after all, exemplified what Flaherty and Yoon hoped to do. They wanted to unseat an incumbent who had been in office for a long time. They wanted to ride the wave of change.

Chang-Diaz did extremely well in my neighborhood of Beacon Hill, and in the other neighborhoods that comprise Ward 5--- Back Bay, Fenway and Bay Village. She won more than 70-percent of the vote across the ward. For Sam Yoon, in particular, such results were critical to his hopes. If he could replicate what Chang-Diaz did, one figured, Yoon would have a shot. Especially since conventional wisdom said the socioeconomic realities of Ward 5 were inclined to favor Yoon.

Of course, there were three challengers running this past Tuesday, so emulating Chang-Diaz's mark stood as a pretty lofty goal for Yoon. Still, he didn't even come close. In fact, he lost Ward 5 to the incumbent Mayor by nearly six percent.

Looking at the precinct level results within Ward 5 doesn't provide much solace to the Yoon camp. The Mayor won the Beacon Hill/Back Bay area of the Ward (arguably one center of Yoon's base). By comparison, Chang-Diaz picked up more than 80-percent of the vote in certain Back Bay precincts last year.

So why did the Mayor win Ward 5? Why didn't those Chang-Diaz voters flock to Sam Yoon en mass? Certainly no two elections are the same, and this year's Mayoral contest is very different from last year's state senate race.

Boston is a world-renown city. It has its problems, but on the whole, residents I have spoken to in Ward 5 are happy with where Boston is right now and are proud to live here.

The Mayor has made some very difficult decisions. On his reasons, he doesn't equivocate. I think voters appreciate that in a Mayor.

The Mayor is mindful of the city's finances. Boston has the highest bond rating in its history. A sound financial stance actually resonates with residents in Ward 5. Yoon's comment that he doesn't think bond ratings are important did not go over well.

Finally, last year's state senate race was marred by a variety of past ethical accusations against the incumbent. Chang-Diaz ran on the message that voters should not have to sacrifice ethics for progressive leadership. The message resonated. This year, in the case of the Mayor, the incumbent's administration is free from any such accusations. People will note certain traits of his personality, but the bottom line is the Mayor has never been the subject of any sort of investigation.

The other bottom line is the city of Boston is doing fine, and the Mayor has good ideas for moving the city forward. And for the plurality of voters in Ward 5 who came to the polls Tuesday, that reasoning for the Mayor was good enough.

Editor's Note: I am a supporter of Mayor Menino's and am volunteering for his campaign team. Last year, I volunteered for Sonia Chang-Diaz's campaign team.

Spring Politics in Boston

Several political races are heating up around Boston, if you know where to look.

City Council at-large candidate Andrew Kenneally stopped by a meeting of the newly formed Boston chapter of the Young Massachusetts Democrats last month. He spoke for about 10 minutes on a variety of topics, including the MBTA (which I think is interesting given the MBTA is run by the state) and initiatives to make Boston greener. I asked him about the oft-derided Payment in Lieu of Taxes (PILOT) program, where non-profit institutions make a donation to the City to offset the fact they don't have to pay property tax. Kenneally mentioned he supports the Mayor's recently created task force to study the issue.

Kenneally and two other at-large city council candidates, Tomas Gonzalez and Scotland Willis, visited my Ward 5 Democratic Committee last month. Chairman Rob Whitney graciously gave them the chance to address the group.

The Mayor's race in Boston is also heating up. In late February, I attended a Meet the Mayor event where I got a chance to have bagels and muffins with Mayor Tom Menino, who still hasn't decided if he's running for re-election (though many, including myself, hope he does). What was neat about the event was the Mayor was chatting with younger Boston residents (I was sadly among the oldest), and he spoke with a passion as if he were running for office for the first time.

I received an email this week from someone working for one of the declared candidates for Mayor, Michael Flaherty. She appeared to have sent the note to the entire Ward 5 Democratic Committee, asking us if we wanted to get involved with the campaign. What I find amazing is that it's April, and she's asking about a city race that won't have an election until September (when the preliminary will be scheduled). My Ward 5 committee won't take an endorsement vote in the Mayoral race until after Labor Day. Then again, I heard from another politically minded Boston resident that turnout for the preliminary might eclipse 100,000. In Boston, that's a ton. I guess things are heating up.

By far the most intriguing campaign so far is being run by the young Doug Bennett, the Republican from Nantucket, who is also running for an at-large seat on the Boston City Council. While his efforts are noteworthy, I haven't quite figured Doug out. He launched an "entertaining" YouTube video recently, set to John Cougar's "Ain't that America." He also says he's going to knock on 100,000 doors across Boston, which I admit is admirable. However, last Saturday, while I was watching the Final Four on CBS, he left a flier on my mailbox (I know it was for me as it had my specific apartment number on it). The problem is I was clearly at home and he didn't ring the buzzer. Does he count that as a door knock?

Enjoy Doug's video below. And happy Saturday.

The Slippery Slope of Political "Change"

A word that emerged on the scene in 2008 was Rorschach, as in Rorschach test. I had no idea what it meant before the 2008 election season, and now I read analogies using the Rorschach test every week.

The Rorschach test implies that a given political candidate turns into what the voter wants. It's often related to President Obama. Voters saw in Obama what they wanted, given his fresh face at a time of national political despair (read "George W. Bush").

Put another way, if voters want change badly enough, they will embrace a change candidate for their own reasons.

It follows that in this current political climate, candidates are desperate to be seen as agents of change.

Enter Michael Flaherty, and his announcement today (or was it late last night?) that he's a candidate for Mayor of Boston (2009 is a Mayoral election year in Boston). The text on his campaign website does not mention "change" at all, however he couldn't help himself on the YouTube video that officially declared his intentions. He asks listeners to consider joining his "campaign for change."

It's a grassroots effort. It's time to turn the page. Start a new chapter. Bring in new leadership.

All these phrases are indicative of calling for change. Flaherty, currently a Boston City Councilor, is hoping that by being the change candidate, he can lump Mayor Menino (assuming he decides to run for re-election) into the same category as George Bush, Dianne Wilkerson, and others-- cases where the voters believed it was time for change.

Flaherty assumes that change in leadership is needed. Unfortunately for him, Mayor Menino is not George Bush, and he is not Dianne Wilkerson. He is not to blame for the current economic crisis faced by the city, the nation and the world.

In fact, one would argue that given what we will face in the coming months, experience is what is needed so that this city is properly represented. Mayor Menino's most recent announcements make it clear he is acting in the best interests of Boston.

The 2009 Boston Mayoral race has begun, and we have two announced candidates-- Flaherty and South End resident Kevin McCrea. Both will inevitably talk of change. Merely calling yours a campaign for change does not make it a Rorschach test for voters. In the case of Obama, voters were thirsty for a change, and someone who could provide new ideas. In Boston this year, we need experience, wisdom and leadership. Change can result in the opposite.